The Present Through the Lens of the Future – Part 2 – Finite Resources
Imagine it is 500 years in the future and there is a student whatever-the-equivalent of ‘reading’ whatever-is-the-equivalent of a ‘book’ of history*Given that ‘history is written by the victors’ and the narrative recorded in the ‘book’ will thus depend on the path society has taken, we are necessarily predicting the future when we seek to answer the question. But absurd idealizations of objectivity aside, how might the present moment be viewed? about our present. What will be considered the grand challenge of our time*One boundary condition is necessarily that there is someone to ask the question, thus some degree of ‘victory condition’ must have been met (from an existential perspective). So in answering the question, perhaps it is impossible to avoid the bias of our own perspective on what must be true if we are indeed going to survive.?
The contenders:
- Climate Change
- Finite Resources
- A World Without Growth
- Evolving Our Values
- Expanding ‘I’
- Coping with Acceleration
- Digital Life
- Polarization vs. Homogeneity
So, if climate change is the symptom, not the source, of our grand challenge, what candidates beyond climate do we have for our student of the future?
Finite Resources
Perhaps our more fundamental challenge is that we live on a planet that is finite, with a flux of energy that is finite, and as a consequence there may be an ultimate carrying capacity. The techno-optimist may point out that 1) technology can solve for much in the way of carrying capacity, and already has (e.g. Haber-Bosch), 2) we technically aren’t confined to this planet, and 3) it would take a bold mind indeed to extrapolate to human species growth potential beyond the finitude of the universe. As such, carrying capacity is a red herring. ‘Grant me sufficient energy and I will shape the very fabric of our reality to suit our purpose.’
However, technologies that expand the carrying capacity of our planet (or open up the universe to our colonization) take time to develop. The convolved exponentials of our population growth and our per capita demand for energy have outpaced our ability to expand the carrying capacity of the planet (in this moment). Perhaps a mismatch in our rates of growth and the rates at which we can expand the carrying capacity is at the heart of this explanation for the grand challenge of our time.