You know the score. We are responsible for, and aware of, a rapidly changing climate, the consequences of which will be unprecedented in not only the history of our species, but possibly the history of our planet. We are knowingly belching out billions upon billions of tons of greenhouse gases, despite the path of self-ruin laid out before us. What’s worse, we even know (at a high level, at least) what we must do to stem the tide, to prevent catastrophe.
And yet we do (approximately) nothing.
What are we to take from this fact? How are we supposed to feel about our species, our society, that we should respond so flaccidly to a cause of, above all, self-preservation? It’s understandable that so many of us have been left with a feeling of collective auto-antipathy.
And once there… what a challenging whirlpool from which to pull oneself. The thoughts stack on each other. Do we even deserve saving (self-judgement)? There’s nothing I can do about it (lack of agency). Why isn’t someone doing something about it (anger)? It doesn’t matter anyway (apathy).
These destructive thought patterns, while perfectly valid perspectives in light of the data, are the opposite of generative. I’ve suffered from them all at various stages of my own climate journey, and both my efficacy and experience of life and my common (hu)man suffered in turn.
So why am I smiling?
A few years ago I experienced a change in perspective that I’d like to share here, in the hopes that it might be helpful to you as it was to me in redoubling my efforts, and improving my daily experience of our collective journey from one of despair to one of hope.
First, a quick aside about assumptions. Let us assume that there is, in fact, a path which we might take that precludes climate disaster while retaining the principle values that we hold dear and enabling a high quality of life for the vast majority of our species. For several such paths, the IPCC is a good reference.*From a relative perspective, the best estimates of the cost of preventing a >2 degree C temperature change is ~1% of GDP, vs. the estimated cost of dealing with the consequences of ~5% of GDP
We’ve all likely come across the almost-platitudinous equation:
Happiness = Reality – Expectations
Like all models, it’s not absolutely correct but embodied in it is a certain truth. I’d like to argue that a major source of our suffering at witnessing our collective non-response to the existential issue of climate is a correctable failure to set appropriate expectations for our species.
Some of the best of us demand the best of ourselves. In many ways, it’s an expression of love and respect to expect that ours is a species that should aspire to perfection in analytical and moral reasoning. It evidences the potential we feel in ourselves and in humanity, and in that expectation lies much beauty. However (specific religious models aside), we are not born from on high, our origins are not perfection… our species, and our moral logic, and even the very expectations which we have for ourselves are emergent properties of a biological system that is itself an emergent property of a unique set of boundary conditions on our planet. So why is it that we set our bar of expectations for self without reference to the brutal morass from which we stemmed?
I’ll make a bold claim:
there has never been a species on Earth that has consciously reasoned to self-limiting behavior in response to, or in anticipation of, exceeding the carrying capacity of the ecosystem that it occupies
One can’t prove a negative, but to provide some heuristic logic, the above statement requires the concept of an ‘I’ (which we believe to be somewhat rarified), a model of the ecosystem within which one is living, and a compulsion to preserve a broader-than-oneself collective organism.
So, why do we expect ourselves to do just that? What priors do we have that indicate to us that this is reasonable to predict?
We don’t. It’s not reasonable. We should expect ourselves to crash into the limits of our ecosystem and its carrying capacity and for us to only establish a steady state population through selection pressures out of our control. The only data to the contrary we have is the acknowledgement that our species has transcended what we might expect from biological life on earth on many dimensions before, including moral and technological (see Enlightenment Now). Indeed, through innovation we have continued to expand the ecosystems which we occupy and their respective carrying capacity. From this pattern of transcendence we have come to expect a similar trajectory moving forward, and the narratives of being ‘special’ that are so attractive to maintain have been coupled to both entitlement and a self-imposed notion of responsibility for our collective fate.
But should we succeed, should we not choke ourselves on the product of our industry, in so doing we would be transcending our biological origins and evolving into the superorganism called humanity that controls its own selection pressures. It would be extraordinary, unprecedented, and admirable. And that is a compelling vision. A vision worth aspiring to.
It is this reframing from a story of failure to meet our potential to an aspirational narrative of the possible that I believe can set the mind free from caustic suffering and unlock a generative mindset.
And we are so close! The human population of Earth is projected to peak by 2100 at about 11.2 billion people. GDP per unit of emissions has been steadily increasing (meaning the emissions intensity of productivity has been declining). We are firmly capable of providing a high quality of life for 11.2 billion people with even our existing resources… and we have not shown any sign of slowing down our inventiveness to continue to improve quality of life.
This is our crucible, and we are in the unique position in history of being aware of this truth. Perhaps in recognizing the unprecedented title to which we are aspiring, we can watch the unfolding of our species’ future with curiosity and a sense of appreciation and meaningfulness rather than dread and apathy. And maybe, just maybe, we can consequently find the will to contribute in what ways we can to the vision to which we aspire.
An idealist believes that she can be better. A perfectionist believes she already should be. Let’s all be idealists.
Rogelj, J., Shindell, D., Jiang, K., Fifita, S., Forster, P., Ginzburg, V., Handa, C., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Mundaca, L., Séférian, R., Vilariño, M. V., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fuss, S., Gillett, N., He, C., Hertwich, E., Höglund-Isaksson, L., … Schaeffer, R. (2019). Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development. 82.
United Nations. (2019). World Population Prospects 2019 Highlights. 46.
